Solid Gold Berjangka – Global oil prices softened again in trading on Thursday (October 29) as market participants monitored intensifying diplomatic efforts aimed at preventing a resumption of U.S. military strikes against Iran. Brent crude fell to around US$113 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered in the range of US$102 per barrel.
Downward pressure on oil prices followed reports that U.S. Vice President JD Vance had been in communication with Mohsen Rezaei, a high-ranking Iranian security official. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also affirmed that Tehran remains open to diplomatic channels, while President Donald Trump acknowledged that discussions with Iran are ongoing through intermediaries.
This surge in diplomatic activity triggered profit-taking, following a roughly 10% rally in Brent crude throughout October. Hopes for de-escalation helped reduce some of the geopolitical risk premium that had previously bolstered oil prices, though the market remains wary of the possibility of new military operations following the U.S. midterm elections on November 3.
On the supply side, market conditions continue to show mixed signals. Saudi Arabian oil exports remain near their highest levels seen during the conflict, while U.S. crude inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels last week—reaching their lowest level since July. U.S. oil exports also reached their strongest pace since May, even as gasoline stocks in the Midwest dropped to an all-time low.
In the short term, the direction of oil prices will remain heavily dependent on developments in U.S.-Iran relations. Progress in negotiations could compress the risk premium and push prices lower, whereas a diplomatic failure—or the outbreak of new attacks—could quickly drive both Brent and WTI prices back up. (srh)